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Monday, February 4, 2008

A Quick Political Prediction

Heading into the Super Tuesday primaries, my prediction (probably not a very original one) is:

On the Republican side McCain comes close to a clean sweep and pretty much makes nomination inevitable. Here's hoping he follows up on that by re-assuring the base by taking a solidly conservative VP. One hears noise about Brownback, which would be great from my point of view. I don't love McCain, but I'm not sure anyone else still in the field is better, and he's the only one making much noise about bringing back some desperately needed fiscal responsibility.

On the Democratic side, Hillary wins most states, but not by an overwhelming margin. Obama carries his home state and perhaps one or two others. The day ends with Hillary ahead, but Obama still viable with a somewhat healthy delegate count and the increasing support of the party leadership. It seems like there's the possibility of a rather sticky situation there, as the activists/leadership seem to universally want Obama (not only because he's a great speaker, but also because it increasingly looks like Hillary would be an instant loser against McCain) and yet Hillary keeps winning more delegates. No idea how that sorts out in the end.

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